Thoughts on South African and international politics and culture

Monday, November 06, 2006

As we head into the US mid-terms tomorrow, I can't help feeling that a lot of commentators are writing the Republicans off too early. They're definitely going to lose a number of seats, both in the House and the Senate, but many are gifting the Democrats the Senate majority, and I feel it's going to be a tougher fight.

The US has been largely split down the middle in the last 8 years, and feet are firmly planted in Republican and Democratic camps. One has to remember two things: firstly, that there are two conservatives to every one liberal in the US, and secondly, that Republicans are making their dissatisfaction known through opinion polls, but when push comes to shove in mid-terms, their wider purposes are not served by the Democrats controlling the Senate. Opinion polls give you an indication of dissatisfaction with their party, but I wouldn't read them as gospel when it comes to actual voting actions.

As I said, they will definitely lose seats - their reckless behaviour over the past three years will take care of that - but losing the Senate is no given. That will be a fight...