Thoughts on South African and international politics and culture

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Succession or Bust
With Zuma squarely back in the frame again (at least until he gets re-charged), the business media is quite rightly searching for alternatives. Today sees two op-ed pieces, one in the Business Day, and one on Moneyweb, putting forward ideal options for presidential candidates.

Xolela Mangcu writes a great piece of analysis in the Business Day regarding the elitist vs populist "false choice" and maps out a political spectrum to find the ideal leader who has historical populist credentials with strong elitist (and business-friendly) ideals. It's a well written piece and well worth the read. His choice? Tokyo Sexwale.

On the other side, Barry Sergeant looks at Tito Mboweni's credentials as an ideal presidential candidate, largely from the world-class record of the SA Reserve Bank.

As far as I can see, neither of these will be viable options to challenge Zuma, should he dodge the next bullet. It is highly unlikely that Sexwale will leave the lucrative business empire he has steadily built for public office, no matter what the alternative. And Mboweni simply does not have the wider credentials to expediently generate a support base. He is in a post that I would imagine the majority of the rural voting bloc does not understand, and he will be largely unknown to a great proportion of the population.

Place your money on Cyril Ramaphosa.