Thoughts on South African and international politics and culture

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Misleading statistics
As much as I have warned of Zuma's populist strength of late, I can't go along with some misleading conclusions from the Natal Mercury over a recent Research Survey report. The survey reported that "Jacob Zuma is seen as the politician most likely to become the next president of the country". Now this may well be true, but it is well too premature to be undertaking this type of survey. The ANC succession battles truly begin next year, and no other candidate (barring Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma - who is second on the list) have been mooted. Come next year, closer to the ANC AGM, there will be a plethora of candidates vying for position who will be gathering newsprint and being introduced to the public eye. At present, the only person in this race is Zuma, who has started way before the starters have even lined up, and the only reason he his in this position is that his supporters have taken the recent allegations and trial as an affront to his chances of making the presidency.

Take this same survey toward the end of next year, that is when we can really draw meaningful conclusions.